Markets Economy | Olive oil | Prices

Re-estimating 2017/18 olive oil production

Vassilis Zampounis

The developments over the course of this summer let us make a more precise estimate of the olive oil production for the upcoming year in the Mediterranean. The main points of interest are the following:

i) Tunisian production is expected to be record-breaking. It is expected to exceed 350,000 tonnes, making Tunisia the second largest olive oil producer, (Spain being the first). This big rise can be attributed to the country’s responsible olive policy, new plantations entering production and last year’s low production (due to biennial bearing).
ii) The drought has set the bar much lower in Italy. The country is expected to produce 250,000 tonnes of olive oil or even less. Adverse weather conditions have had their toll on the whole country, but particularly in the region of Tuscany.
iii) As far as the Spanish production is concerned, there are doubts. The final results can vary (+/- 50,000) depending on whether it rains in Andalusia during the next few weeks or not.
iv) Greece is expected to produce 270,000 – 280,000 tonnes, as originally estimated. The question over the possibility of rain in the next few weeks is still open.

The supersensitive Greek market
The lack of stock (particularly of high quality) makes Greek market vulnerable in what it has to do with the developments that we described before. Thus, e.g. the shortages in Tuscany will move the focus to certain areas/ varieties of Greece (see South Lakonia).
The offer of 4,60 €/kg in South Lakonia region (from a certain trader) may sound impressive at the moment, but it will depend on the oil/fruit yield of the first batches to be processed at the olive mills. It will also depend on the price level set by the prices of other early harvest varieties.

Visitors' comments

  • | Lisa Radinovsky (Greek Liquid Gold)
    Thank you for publishing that in English. I just shared it on my Facebook pages and on Twitter, as well as on my Greek Liquid Gold website's News page.
  • | TASOS ANESTIS
    I would be very interested to know where you are actually getting these estimations from, especially for Greece. I find it an almost impossible task.
  • | Pepe Perez
    Τα επίσημα στοιχεία παραγωγής της 31ης Ιανουαρίου (στοιχεία της ΕΕ) Ισπανία ... 1.044.000 Ιταλία ... 400.000 tn Ελλάδα ... 230.000 tn Πορτογαλία ... 80.000 tn Όσον αφορά την Τυνησία, το υπουργείο της Τυνησίας στην ιστοσελίδα της σταμάτησε να ενημερώνει τα στοιχεία στις αρχές Ιανουαρίου, με 130.000 τόνους.

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